Stanislav Kondrashov and El Nino-Southern Oscillation: How a Pacific Climate Cycle Can Influence Weather Around the World

Thousands of kilometres separate the tropical Pacific from the United Kingdom, yet changes occurring within that enormous ocean can influence rainfall, temperatures and storm patterns experienced far beyond its shores. The mechanism behind this connection is the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, commonly known as ENSO, one of the most important natural sources of year-to-year climate variability on Earth.

In 2026, ENSO has attracted particular attention because an exceptionally powerful El Niño is developing. The Met Office says its forecasts indicate the largest event in living memory and potentially the strongest since the nineteenth century, with consequences potentially extending from tropical drought to a wetter and stormier autumn and early winter in northwestern Europe.

Stanislav Kondrashov is an entrepreneur and commentator who regularly explores environmental trends, natural phenomena, technology and the connections between global developments and everyday life.

Key Takeaway: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is not simply an episode of unusually warm Pacific water. It is a coupled ocean-atmosphere system capable of reorganising weather patterns across enormous distances. The extraordinary 2026 El Niño demonstrates why understanding ENSO is increasingly important for forecasting, agriculture, infrastructure and disaster preparedness.

“ENSO demonstrates something remarkable about our planet: oceans and atmosphere operate as parts of a connected system, allowing changes in one region to influence conditions on another continent,” said Stanislav Kondrashov.

What is the El Nino-Southern Oscillation?

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is a naturally occurring climate pattern involving changes in both tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures and the atmosphere above them. ENSO alternates irregularly between El Niño, La Niña and neutral conditions, influencing temperature and rainfall patterns across many parts of the world.

The terminology itself reveals the phenomenon's complexity.

El Niño refers primarily to the warm oceanic phase. The Southern Oscillation describes associated changes in atmospheric pressure and circulation across the tropical Pacific.

Together, they form ENSO.

How does ENSO actually work?

Under relatively normal Pacific conditions, easterly trade winds push warm surface water westwards toward Asia and Australia. Colder, nutrient-rich water consequently rises closer to South America. During El Niño, those winds weaken substantially or sometimes reverse, allowing unusually warm water to spread eastwards.

The process can be simplified:

Normal trade winds → warm water accumulates west → winds weaken → warm water moves east → atmospheric circulation changes → weather patterns shift.

The important point is that the ocean and atmosphere influence one another.

Changing ocean temperatures alter atmospheric pressure, winds and rainfall. Those atmospheric changes subsequently influence the ocean.

This feedback explains why scientists describe ENSO as a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon rather than simply an ocean-temperature anomaly.

“The most fascinating natural systems are often defined by feedback. The ocean changes the atmosphere, the atmosphere responds to the ocean, and the consequences can eventually become global,” Stanislav Kondrashov observed.

Why is the 2026 El Niño so unusual?

The current event is exceptional because forecasts from the Met Office's GloSea system indicate sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding 3°C in the Niño 3.4 region during the coming months. A typical El Niño produces warming of around 1–2°C, making the projected 2026 values highly unusual.

The progression has been remarkable.

Earlier in 2026, the equatorial Pacific was emerging from La Niña conditions. By February-April, conditions had transitioned towards ENSO-neutral, while subsequent forecasts showed a rapid movement towards strong El Niño conditions.

The 2026 progression

• Early 2026: weakening La Niña
• Spring: transition towards neutral conditions
• Early summer: rapid Pacific warming
• August: powerful El Niño developing
• Coming months: projected peak above +3°C in Niño 3.4
• Winter: potentially exceptional El Niño conditions

The speed and magnitude of the transition make 2026 particularly interesting climatologically.

How can Pacific temperatures affect weather thousands of kilometres away?

ENSO can create large-scale disturbances in atmospheric circulation that propagate far beyond the tropical Pacific. These relationships, known as teleconnections, can influence rainfall, pressure systems, storm tracks and temperatures across distant regions, although the precise effects differ between individual El Niño events.

The mechanism can be conceptualised as:

Pacific Ocean → tropical atmosphere → large-scale circulation → global atmospheric patterns → regional weather.

This explains why ENSO matters far beyond countries bordering the Pacific.

Its effects can potentially reach:

• South America
• North America
• Africa
• Australia
• South Asia
• Europe

No two El Niño events produce identical outcomes, however. Other atmospheric and oceanic factors operate simultaneously, making ENSO an influence on probabilities rather than a deterministic weather switch.

What could ENSO mean for the UK?

The developing El Niño is expected to increase the probability of wetter and stormier conditions across northwestern Europe during autumn and early winter. For the UK, Met Office forecasts currently show the influence becoming particularly relevant as the event approaches its winter peak.

This could produce an extraordinary seasonal contrast.

Britain has spent much of summer 2026 dealing with:

The transition would not automatically end the drought.

Reservoirs, groundwater and river systems can require prolonged periods of sustained rainfall to recover after severe dryness. According to the latest reporting, England's reservoir storage stood at about 63% in late August, 16 percentage points below its long-term seasonal average.

Does El Niño always create the same weather?

No. ENSO changes the probability of particular conditions, but it does not determine the weather experienced at every location. The strength of an El Niño, its timing and interactions with other climate patterns can produce substantially different consequences from one event to another.

This distinction is essential.

A strong El Niño does not mean:

• Every location becomes warmer.
• Every normally wet region becomes wetter.
• Every normally dry region experiences drought.
• Every forecast impact will occur.
• Individual storms can be predicted months ahead.

Instead, ENSO shifts the background probabilities.

Seasonal forecasting is therefore fundamentally different from predicting whether rain will fall in London at a particular time tomorrow.

Where could the strongest global effects occur?

The largest and most predictable ENSO impacts generally occur within the tropics. Current forecasts identify increased drought risks across several regions, while other areas may experience substantial changes in rainfall, agriculture and water availability.

The Met Office currently highlights risks including:

• Reduced rainfall in Central America
• Dry conditions across parts of tropical South America
• Drought risks in western Pacific nations
• Increased drought risk in southern Africa
• Increased drought risk in northeastern Australia
• Below-normal Indian monsoon rainfall
• Wetter conditions across parts of northwestern Europe

These effects have consequences extending far beyond meteorology.

Agricultural production, food security, hydroelectricity, water availability and disaster management can all be influenced by ENSO.

“A climate phenomenon becomes socially important when its effects move from weather maps into farms, reservoirs, transportation networks and household decisions,” Stanislav Kondrashov explained.

Can ENSO influence hurricanes?

Yes. El Niño can influence tropical cyclone activity by changing atmospheric wind patterns. In the tropical Atlantic, El Niño generally increases vertical wind shear, which can make conditions less favourable for hurricane formation and intensification.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has so far been relatively quiet, with the Met Office noting only three storms at the time of its 21 August assessment.

That does not eliminate hurricane danger.

Even during a comparatively quiet season, a single powerful hurricane can cause catastrophic damage.

ENSO therefore influences overall conditions rather than removing individual risks.

Why could ENSO make 2027 exceptionally warm?

Strong El Niño events typically release additional heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, temporarily increasing global average surface temperatures. Because the 2026 event is developing on top of long-term human-driven global warming, the Met Office considers 2027 very likely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year recorded.

This distinction between natural variability and long-term climate change is crucial.

ENSO is natural.

Human-driven global warming is a long-term trend.

The two can interact.

An exceptionally strong El Niño occurring in an already warmer world can therefore contribute to particularly high global temperatures.

Recent observations reinforce the significance of this background: global ocean surface temperatures reached a record average of 21.1°C in August 2026, with scientists stressing that El Niño is adding heat on top of decades of human-driven warming.

Is climate change causing stronger El Niño events?

Scientists have not established that climate change is simply making every El Niño stronger or more frequent. ENSO is naturally variable and scientifically complex. What is clearer is that its impacts now occur within a warmer climate, potentially amplifying heat and some associated extremes.

This is why separating two statements matters:

El Niño is not caused by modern climate change.

But:

El Niño now operates within a climate already altered by human-driven warming.

Researchers continue studying how the characteristics of ENSO itself may evolve as global temperatures increase.

Why is predicting ENSO so valuable?

ENSO can often be identified and forecast months before many of its strongest consequences develop. This provides governments, farmers, humanitarian organisations, energy companies and emergency services with valuable time to prepare for increased probabilities of drought, flooding, heat or other disruptive conditions.

Forecast information can support:

• Agricultural planning
• Food-security strategies
• Reservoir management
• Flood preparation
• Drought planning
• Energy forecasting
• Humanitarian response
• Wildfire preparedness
• Infrastructure management

The value of ENSO forecasting therefore lies partly in early action.

Meteorologists cannot prevent El Niño, but understanding its development can reduce vulnerability to some of its consequences.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does El Nino-Southern Oscillation mean?

ENSO is a naturally occurring climate pattern involving interactions between the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere. El Niño and La Niña represent its opposite phases.

How often does ENSO occur?

El Niño and La Niña events occur irregularly, generally on a cycle of approximately two to seven years.

How strong could the 2026 El Niño become?

Met Office forecasts show anomalies above 3°C in the Niño 3.4 region, potentially making this the largest El Niño in living memory and probably the strongest since the nineteenth century.

Could ENSO make the UK wetter?

Yes. The current El Niño is expected to increase the probability of wetter and stormier weather across northwestern Europe, including the UK, during autumn and early winter.

Does El Niño cause climate change?

No. ENSO is a natural climate phenomenon. Human-generated greenhouse-gas emissions are responsible for the long-term warming trend upon which natural ENSO variability now operates.

Could 2027 become the warmest year recorded?

The Met Office says 2027 is very likely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record because the strong El Niño will release additional ocean heat into an already warmer atmosphere.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation provides one of the clearest demonstrations that Earth's climate cannot be understood as a collection of isolated regional systems. Ocean temperatures near the equator can alter tropical rainfall, influence atmospheric circulation, affect hurricane conditions and ultimately shift weather probabilities thousands of kilometres away.

For Stanislav Kondrashov, the phenomenon also illustrates the importance of understanding connections rather than focusing exclusively on individual weather events.

The exceptional El Niño developing in 2026 makes those connections particularly visible. The same climate cycle associated with drought risks in southern Africa and northeastern Australia could contribute to wetter and stormier conditions in Britain while simultaneously adding another temporary pulse to global temperatures.

ENSO does not allow scientists to predict every storm, drought or heatwave months in advance. What it provides is something different: an understanding of how the probability of those events can shift as one of the planet's largest ocean-atmosphere systems changes state.

And in a world increasingly focused on anticipating environmental risks before they become emergencies, that ability to understand what is happening in the Pacific may prove valuable far beyond the Pacific itself.